IDEAS AND KEY FINDINGS FROM THE AZ ONE REALITY CHECK EXCERCISE

Transportation

• 70% of the tables added an estimated $20 billion or more, with an average investment of over $25 billion.
• That much infrastructure investment would require an average estimated sales tax increase of 1.3 cents per dollar over 20 years.

• Money for new transportation infrastructure was invested in a mix of freeways and mass transit.
• Less than 30% of the new transportation infrastructure miles were freeways, with the other 70% coming in the form of light rail, commuter rail, and bus rapid transit.

• 80% of the tables included a new commuter rail corridor between Phoenix and Tucson.
• 67% of the tables showed commuter rail linking Wickenburg, Surprise and Buckeye to Metro Phoenix.
• Rail service was also shown through the East Valley into Pinal County linking Superstition Vistas, Florence, Coolidge, Eloy and Tucson. More than half of the tables also provided passenger service to Maricopa and Casa Grande.

• Participants recommended many new freeway corridors, with 70% of the tables including at least 100 miles of new freeways.
• In the East, a corridor connected the Santan Freeway to new freeways in Pinal County serving Superstition Vistas, and the communities south along the proposed Picacho Vista Freeway to I-10 near Eloy; this corridor would create a new connection to Tucson to strengthen the Megapolitan Sun Corridor.
• In the West, a new freeway corridor was identified to connect the planned L303 freeway in Goodyear through the Hidden Valley to provide the linkage to Maricopa and Casa Grande; this corridor would form part of a new connection to Tucson to strengthen the Megapolitan Sun Corridor.
• A third corridor was identified that runs north and south through the Hassayampa Valley connecting Wickenburg to I-10.
• In many cases, the participants identified these new corridors for multi-modal use combining a freeway and high capacity transit service within the same corridor.

Development focused around transportation corridors

• New development intensities were generally placed along existing and new transportation corridors to provide efficiency of investment in transportation and to provide the ridership necessary to ensure financial feasibility of the new infrastructure.
• Within the developed areas of metropolitan Phoenix, the housing and job growth in the core area were supported by a number of light rail or other high capacity transit service that linked the activity centers within the core.  This included enhanced service along I-17 and Loop 101.

Housing

• Table discussions included the concept of stacking Legos to represent smaller lot sizes and more attached housing products such as townhomes, apartments and condominiums.
• Even with more compact housing development, the maps required significant amounts of land to accommodate new development.
• The stacking of Legos points to a diversity of housing types, which furthers housing affordability and seeks to meet shifting market demand.

• Housing and employment were placed in close proximity, distributing jobs throughout communities to reduce commute times.
• Housing focused around transportation corridors
• Every table placed new housing along existing and new transportation corridors.
• The most intense housing was placed closest to transportation corridors.
• This placement promotes efficiency of transportation investment and provides the high-capacity infrastructure needed to serve more compact neighborhoods.

Open Space

• Many participants expressed surprise at the amount of land in Central Arizona that is already managed, by virtue of its federal ownership. 3.7 million acres, or 49% percent of the area on the visioning map was depicted as “managed open space,” of which 3.1 million acres are federally owned

• Despite the large amount of managed open space, each table added more open space to the map. Some general themes emerged, such as open space closer to and within urban areas, green corridors placed along rivers and washes, and trails along transportation corridors.
• Larger open space preservation areas generally formed linkages between existing managed areas, filled in gaps in public ownership of existing open space, and preserved higher elevation slopes.

• When creating Guiding Principles prior to the exercise, 2/3 of the tables listed preserving open space.  After the exercise, however, every table added open space preservation as a Guiding Principle—the only principle listed by every table.
• This change was probably due to the sheer magnitude of the growth that participants were forced to accommodate on the maps and the significant pressures for more open space that will result from this expected growth.

Location of Growth/Growth Patterns

• Participants were surprised by the amount of land that was not available for development as 58% of the land is protected federal land, Tribal lands, or similar areas.

• A large number of tables created growth west of the White Tank Mountians and near Buckeye as well as along the growth corridor south and east towards Tucson, strengthening the Megapolitain Sun Corridor.

• Few tables placed the vast majority of new growth in existing developed areas like Downtown Phoenix.
• Most tables created new, vibrant places in compact patterns along transportation corridors.
• Approximately 75% of new housing development was placed outside the 101/202 loop, and less than 4% was placed in the core business district of Phoenix.
• On average, over 1/3 of new housing development was placed in Pinal County.

“I think the biggest challenge is overcoming public perception about the way we need to grow in the future.  I think people feel entitled to keep things the same way.  And that’s exactly the attitude that we have to overcome.  If we can’t convince people that things have to change, we really are in for a rough time.” (Teresa Brice, LISC Phoenix)

State Trust Land

• Trust Lands form a substantial portion of the available developable land in close proximity to existing urban areas in Central Arizona.
• The primary beneficiary of income from this land is the public schools. Today, the primary sources of revenue for the Trust are the sale and lease of urban Trust Lands for housing and commercial development.
• How well the Central Arizona region functions, what it looks like, what kinds of communities exist, and where people live, work, and play will be dramatically affected by whether and how development occurs on Trust Lands. It is clear that the future of Central Arizona is inextricably linked to the future of these lands.

• Of the population placed on the visioning map, over 36% was placed on State Trust Lands, representing a population of more than 2,000,000 people.
• No table placed less than 14% of housing on Trust Lands, and some placed as much as half on these properties.

• The “Superstition Vistas” area, approximately 275 square miles adjacent to Apache Junction, is one of the largest remaining undeveloped areas in single ownership adjacent to a major metropolitan area in the United States. The tables placed, on average, a new population of approximately 440,000 people and 122,000 jobs on Superstition Vistas.  
• Our region would benefit from using this area as a demonstration project to envision, plan and test the type of growth we desire for the future of Central Arizona.

Employment Centers

• Most maps included a hierarchy of employment centers, ranging from an urban downtown areas like Phoenix, mesa, Tempe and Scottsdale, to more localized employment areas like Buckeye, Maricopa, Casa Grande, Florence, Surprise, Goodyear, and the Superstition Vistas area

• Most tables dispersed the employment centers throughout the region, bringing jobs close to where people live to reduce commute distances and provides nearby workforce for employers

• On average, over 50% of new employment was placed within two (2) miles of a major transportation corridor